Why Japan and South Korea Are Facing a Population Collapse: The Hidden Costs of Modern Growth

 

✍️ Radhakrishnan Dutta

     In the second half of the twentieth century, population explosion was a major challenge that occupied the discourse about global demography. However, in a reversal of the situation, now a growing demographic collapse has become a pressing concern in a whole array of countries, mostly the developed economies.Japan and South Korea are facing one of the sharpest demographic crises in modern history, raising questions about why Japan’s birth rate is falling and how South Korea’s low fertility rate can be explained. Recent data suggests that Japan and South Korea are on the brink of imminent population collapse, with total fertility rates (TFR) of the native population in both nations standing far below the replacement rate of 2.1. South Korea’s TFR stood at 0.75 in 2024, while Japan is hovering around 1.2 since 2023. Japan government data suggests that Japan’s population declined by 908,574 in 2024. It has a staggering 30% elderly population against a declining working age population. South Korea has recently declared national emergency due to the population crisis.

    

    What exactly is causing this crisis in the developed economies ? Studies conducted in these two countries experiencing the crisis found that, structural economic reasons interlinked with socio-cultural issues are exacerbating the demographic decline. High Cost of living, highly competitive culture in educational and work spaces, high impetus on performance etc., emerge as the primary grounds discouraging young people from forming families. In this social environment in the two countries, having families appear as additional financial and career burdens for the young generation. This environment and the corporate work culture further lead to atomised, isolated lifestyles among the young people in these countries, leaving very little amount of time for socialising. Henceforth, unwillingness to start family has become a primary attitude among the young population who has just entered the job market. The governments in these countries are initiating desperate measures such as housing subsidies, decrease in work hours, schooling subsidies for newly born, tax benefits for couples with children etc. However, these measures have not been successful in reversing the trend.

      

    Demographic decline and shrinking of family culture have long term adverse consequences for a nation. It leads to an aging population depriving the economy necessary work force. A large elderly population results in a huge burden on the nation’s welfare system without having the balancing presence of the working age population. Besides, with decline in native population, there is the very potent possibility of extinction of cultures in long term. Many developed economies are currently undergoing another social conflict caused by the demographic crises. In order to fill up the gap in working age population, European countries like UK, France, Germany etc.; with a high aging population, have increasingly relied upon migration from the global south. Now, this has resulted in growing discord between the native population and the newly arrived in many of these nations. Anti immigrant politics is growing in these European nations, symbolised by the rise of anti immigrant Reform UK party in UK, National Rally in France or AfD in Germany. This new social conflict can be seen rising from the pitfalls of the root cause of native population decline.

      It is beyond any doubt to state that a massive increase in population without the means of survival is not desirable for any nation. However, a complete collapse paints another bleak picture. Considering this, the idea of a replacement level in the measurement of total fertility rate (TFR) has been prevalent in demographic studies. A population far below the replacement level of 2.1 presents a societal crisis just as a huge rise above the replacement level precipitates another crisis. In the current period, the former is proving to be the bigger challenge in the developing world. As evident in the cases of Japan, South Korea, an overly corporate culture, too much individualism that results from this culture, rise of cost of living, huge competition for opportunities, careerism are the prime drivers of this crisis. These are, incidentally, the negative sides of a high capitalist economic model. While growth is necessary for a nation, it is pertinent that it should not become hindrance to the social existence of individuals outside of their economic lives. It is time to strive for a system that maintains a balance between the two.

© 2025 Radhakrishnan Dutta.